Another U.S. Government Shutdown 2025

Zachary Schwartz
Oct 1
3 min read

A crowd stands in front of a closed roller coaster with a sign reading "CLOSED Out of Order." Text below asks, "That time of year again?" — Government Shutdown: 2025 Edition

At 12:01 a.m. on October 1, 2025, federal funding lapsed, triggering a government shutdown.

This is the first shutdown since 2018–2019.

Why this Government Shutdown Happened

Failure to pass appropriations / continuing resolution
Congress had not enacted the 12 required spending bills, and the stopgap funding proposals failed to secure Senate support.
Republicans pushed a “clean” continuing resolution (extension at current levels) to Nov. 21 Democrats demanded extensions of health care subsidies and restoration of some Medicaid funding.
Partisan standoff and conditional bargaining
Neither party was willing to yield on key policy demands. Democrats insisted on health care elements, Republicans resisted adding what they considered unrelated spending.
The White House directed agencies to prepare for mass layoffs or structural reduction if funding fails.

What Shuts Down / What Continues

Non-essential discretionary functions are suspended until funding is restored.
Essential services (national security, law enforcement, transportation safety, etc...) continue but often under strain, and often without pay until the shutdown ends.
Mandatory spending programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) generally continue.
Some agencies face severe staff cuts:
- The Department of Health and Human Services expects 41% of its workforce furloughed.
- The CDC and NIH will suspend much of their work.
- The FAA may furlough over 11,000 employees. Air traffic controllers will work without pay.

Immediate Impacts

Federal workers: hundreds of thousands furloughed, many others working without immediate compensation.
Local economies in areas with many federal employees may see reduced consumer spending.
Travel & aviation: delays, disruptions, and reduced oversight. Some analysts predict the travel industry may lose ~$1B per week.
Public health & research: cutbacks at CDC, NIH, HHS hamper disease surveillance, grant review, intervention programs.
Social programs: some nutrition assistance programs like WIC may run out of funds.

Longer-Term Risks & Uncertainties

Duration matters: The longer the shutdown, the greater the total economic loss, the deeper the damage to federal operations, morale, and institutional capacity.
Back pay & budget pressure: Under the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act (2019), federal employees and military will receive back pay after funding resumes.
Permanent cuts or reorganization: The White House has floated “reduction-in-force” plans to eliminate programs not aligned with priorities.
Credibility & public trust: Repeated shutdowns erode faith in government competence and undermine long-term planning in agencies.
Policy leverage & deals: Shutdowns can be used as leverage in negotiations, but they also stiffen stances and make compromise harder.

Possible Paths Forward

Short-term continuing resolution
Congress might pass a temporary funding measure to reopen the government while negotiations continue.
Omnibus appropriations bill
Passage of a full set of appropriations (or a package) that settles funding levels and policy riders.
Partial reopening
Some agencies reopen earlier than others via piecemeal funding bills.
Protracted shutdown with structural changes
The administration may push for lasting program cuts or agency reorganization as a condition for funding.

Too Long, Didn't Read (TLDR):

The 2025 shutdown is a confrontation over both process (how budgets get passed) and substance (health care, spending levels). The immediate pain falls on federal workers and public services. But the longer the shutdown lasts, the more systemic damage it can inflict. The resolution will depend on political will, negotiation flexibility, and whether either side can credibly commit to an agreement.

Sources: