Thanksgiving Week Update: The "Missing" Data Feast and What It Means for Rates

Town Team Mortgage - Thanksgiving 2025

Happy Thanksgiving Week from Town Team Mortgage!

Usually, the Monday before Thanksgiving is when we brace for a "data dump." Because the markets are closed on Thursday, the government typically crams a week’s worth of economic reports—including major inflation and GDP updates—into Tuesday and Wednesday.

But this year is different.

As you may have heard, the recent government shutdown (which ended on Nov 12) has created a significant backlog in Washington. The result? The massive data feast we were expecting has been largely postponed.

Here is what you need to know about this unusual week and how to use it to your advantage.

The "Missing" Main Course (GDP & PCE)

The two biggest reports that move mortgage rates—the GDP 2nd Estimate and the PCE Inflation Report (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge)—were originally scheduled for this Wednesday.

• Status: RESCHEDULED.

• The Impact: Because the Bureau of Economic Analysis is still playing catch-up from the shutdown, these major reports won't hit the wires this week. For homebuyers and refinancers, this "data silence" might actually be golden. Without a surprise inflation spike to spook investors, the mortgage market may drift calmly into the holiday weekend, keeping the recent rate improvements intact.

What IS On The Menu?

While the heavy hitters are delayed, we do have a few key "side dishes" serving up data on Tuesday and Wednesday that could still twitch the needle:

• Tuesday (10:00 AM ET): Consumer Confidence.

  • Forecast: Consensus expects a reading near 50.5–51.0, which is historically low.

  • Why it matters: If Americans are feeling gloomy about the economy, it often drives investors toward safer bonds, which can help lower mortgage rates.

• Wednesday (8:30 AM ET): Weekly Jobless Claims.

  • Forecast: This report is back on schedule. The market is watching to see if the recent "softening" in the labor market is a trend or a blip.

• Wednesday (8:30 AM ET): Durable Goods Orders.

  • The Wild Card: This tracks big-ticket purchases (like appliances and cars). A weak number here would further confirm the economy is cooling down, reinforcing the case for lower rates.

Your "Turkey Talk" Cheatsheet

We know how it goes. You're at the dinner table, someone brings up the economy, and suddenly everyone has an opinion. If you want to be the smartest person in the room (without starting a food fight), here are three facts you can share:

1. The "Turkey Index" is Down: According to the Farm Bureau, the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner is actually down ~5% compared to last year. Finally, some deflation we can taste!

2. The "Lock-In" Effect is Thawing: For the first time in nearly a year, mortgage rates have dipped enough to make moving attractive again for some homeowners who felt "stuck" in their current loans.

3. The Window is Open: With the big inflation data delayed until December, we have a unique window of relative calm right now. It’s a rare opportunity to lock in a rate without fighting the usual market volatility.

We Are Thankful For You

Before the madness of Black Friday and Cyber Monday takes over, we want to pause and say thank you. We are incredibly grateful for our clients, our referral partners, and this wonderful community we call home.

The Bottom Line: Enjoy the food, the football, and the 5% discount on your turkey. We will be keeping an eye on the few reports that are releasing this week so you don't have to.

Did a topic at the dinner table spark a question about your home equity? Text us anytime this week at [312-896-2114]—we’re here to help you digest the numbers!